Dodgers Dugout: How do the Dodgers match up against the Padres?

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell and the Dodgers have a three-game lead over the Padres in the NL West, just in time for the Padres to come to town for three games. It doesn’t get much more exciting than this.
Keep in mind, the Padres hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Dodgers, so if they finish the season with the same record, San Diego wins the division.
I have a sneaking feeling that these teams are going to play each other in the postseason, so let’s see how they match up this season:
Offense
Runs per gameDodgers, 5.15 (2nd in MLB)Padres, 4.74 (8th)
Batting averagePadres, .265 (1st)Dodgers, .255 (5th)
On-base %Dodgers, .332 (3rd)Padres, .326 (4th)
Slugging %Dodgers, .444 (1st)Padres, .422 (7th)
DoublesDodgers, 276 (T3rd)Padres, 246 (16th)
TriplesDodgers, 26 (T10th)Padres, 17 (T19th)
Home runsDodgers, 225 (T2nd)Padres, 185 (10th)
Stolen bases Dodgers, 127 (12th)Padres, 115 (14th)
WalksDodgers, 576 (T2nd)Padres, 444 (24th)
StrikeoutsDodgers, 1,296 (19th most)Padres, 1,032 (30th)
Sacrifice buntsPadres, 27 (2nd)Dodgers, 10 (T21st)
Batting avg. with runners in scoring positionPadres, .274 (4th)Dodgers, .264 (9th)
Batting with two out, runners in scoring positionDodgers, .268 (1st)Padres, .222 (24th)
*Late and closePadres, .281 (1st)Dodgers, .255 (2nd)
*Late and close is plate appearances in the seventh inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.
Pitching
ERAPadres, 3.84 (11th)Dodgers, 3.95 (15th)
Rotation ERAPadres, 3.91 (14th)Dodgers, 4.22 (19th)
Bullpen ERADodgers, 3.66 (eighth)Padres, 3.75 (11th)
ShutoutsPadres, 15 (T-first)Dodgers, 13 (T-sixth)
SavesDodgers, 47 (fifth)Padres, 42 (T-ninth)
Blown savesDodgers, 29 (T-third)Padres, 23 (T13th)
Save %Padres, 64.6% (13th)Dodgers, 61.8% (17th)
Inherited runners that scored %Dodgers, 33.3% (14th)Padres, 33.9% (19th)
Home runs allowedDodgers, 194 (fifth most)Padres, 163 (T23rd)
WHIPPadres, 1.214 (seventh)Dodgers, 1.233 (ninth)
Hits per 9 IPDodgers, 7.97 (seventh)Padres, 8.06 (ninth)
Walks per 9 IPPadres, 2.87 (ninth)Dodgers, 3.12 (16th)
K’s per 9 IPPadres, 9.18 (fourth)Dodgers, 8.47 (16th)
Win-loss record
At homeDodgers, 50-28, .641Padres, 45-36, .556
RoadPadres, 45-30, .600Dodgers, 43-35, .551
Pre All-Star breakDodgers, 56-41, .577Padres, 50-49, .505
Post ASBPadres, 40-17, .702Dodgers, 37-22, .627
Extra inningsPadres, 10-2, .833Dodgers, 9-7, .563
One-run gamesPadres, 22-18, .550Dodgers, 19-17, .528
Blowout (win or lose by at least five)Dodgers, 22-18, .550Padres, 22-19, .537
InterleagueDodgers, 30-16, .652Padres, 27-19, .587
Walk-off wins/lossesPadres, 10-5, .667Dodgers, 7-8, .467
Run differentialDodgers, +133Padres, +97
Two very good teams. If the Dodgers win at least two of three, they win the division. A tall order. It would be best not to have to travel to Denver for the season’s final three games needing to win all of those to clinch the division. Give the pitching staff a chance to rest and let guys such as Brent Honeywell and Ben Casparius carry a bulk of the innings there if need be.
But the Dodgers never do things the easy way,
Dave Roberts put it best, in this story by Jack Harris: “I think it’s pretty easy to see that when we’ve played them, I think 10 times this year, they came out more intense than we did,” Roberts said. “And that’s got to change. I expect it to change. Playing those guys — in certainly very, very meaningful games — will bring out the best in us.”
“I think the chaser always seems like they have a little extra incentive, so I think that’s part of it,” Roberts said of the intensity gap he’s observed at times between the clubs. “But the talent being equal, there’s no reason why our fight, our intensity, focus shouldn’t match theirs or best theirs.”
Well, yes, let’s hope the Dodgers can match their opponent’s focus for three important games. If they can’t do it now, what chance do they have to do it in the postseason?
The Dodgers could get some pitching help this postseason from a very unexpected source: Tony Gonsolin.
Gonsolin is returning from (stop me if you’ve heard this before) Tommy John surgery. In his three triple-A rehab starts this month, he has a 2.35 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 7 ⅔ innings, giving up seven hits and two walks. His fastball is topping out at 94 mph and he’s throwing his slider, changeup and splitter for strikes. He will throw a bullpen session before the Dodgers decide what to do, which includes activating him for the final series against Colorado.
“He has postseason experience,” Dave Roberts said. “For us, to continue to move forward with his progression is most important. And then we’ll just see where he’s at, where we’re at.”
Of course, Gonsolin’s postseason experience consists of a 9.20 ERA in eight games, so…
This, of course, will be the big key to the postseason. How much depth can they get from their starters? You have Jack Flaherty, who is capable of going seven innings, and then a bunch of question marks. Landon Knack might be able to give you six if the pressure of the postseason isn’t too much. Yoshinobu Yamamoto took a step back with a poor outing Sunday, and hasn’t pitched more than four innings since his return. Walker Buehler is … who knows? He seems to settle down after a rocky first inning, but you can’t afford to fall into too deep a hole in a postseason game. But right now, those look like your four most likely starters.
But what about Gonsolin? And what about Clayton Kershaw? Can either of them return? And if they do, just what will you get considering it seems they will be coming off the the injured list in time for the postseason. Will Dave Roberts have the wherewithal to keep Kershaw on a short leash?
Remember last season with Lance Lynn? Everyone knew that once Lynn gave up a homer, more were on the way. But Roberts left him in there to give up four homers in a crucial postseason game. That can’t happen this season. Flaherty can have a bit of a leash, but if Buehler is looking bad, you can’t give him time to find himself (unless maybe you are up 3-0 in the series).
Managing the pitching staff has always been Roberts’ biggest weakness. And this year, the pitching staff is more fragile than ever. Prepare to bite your nails to the quick.
Some readers have emailed with the suggestion that the Dodgers would be better off in the wild-card round, because the long layoff between the end of the season and the start of the second round of the postseason will hurt their competitive edge. To me, that’s ridiculous. The “long layoff” hurting a team has no evidence to support it (teams have had long layoffs during the postseason for years, such as when a team would sweep the ALCS and gets several extra days off when the NLCS went seven games, and vice versa).
And this season, with the rotation in tatters and the bullpen overtaxed, the more time off the better. No one was suggesting the Dodgers lose on purpose, mind you, just that if they do fall to the wild-card round, it might work to their benefit.
I was told emphatically by one reader that “knowledgeable fans agree with me, and if you put it to a poll you’d find that out.”
So let’s find that out. Would it be an advantage if the Dodgers were in the wild-card round? Vote here to let us know.
A look at how the teams stack up. The division winner plus the next three teams with the better record advance to the postseason:
Division leaders
1. Dodgers, 93-632. Philadelphia, 93-643. Milwaukee, 89-67
The Phillies hold the tiebreaker over the Dodgers, while the Dodgers hold the advantage over the Brewers. All three teams have clinched a postseason spot.
Wild-card standings
San Diego, 90-66N.Y. Mets, 87-69Arizona, 87-70Atlanta, 85-71, 1.5 GB
If the season ended today, the Dodgers and Phillies would get first-round byes. Milwaukee would host the Arizona in one best-of-three wild-card round with the winner advancing to play the Phillies in the best-of-five division series. San Diego would play host to the Mets, with the winner advancing to play the Dodgers.
If the Dodgers slip out of the top two and have to play in the wild-card round, then their postseason will begin Tuesday, Oct. 1. If they remain in the top two, then their postseason begins Saturday, Oct. 5.
We narrowed it all the way down to two, and after 20,007 ballots, your favorite current Dodger is:
Mookie Betts, 75.9%Freddie Freeman, 24.1%
Last time we asked, “Did Shohei Ohtani have the greatest day on offense in MLB history?” the day he went six for six with three homers, two doubles, two steals and 10 RBIs. After 8,887 votes:
Yes, 93.8%No, 6.2%
Tuesday: San Diego (Michael King, 12-9, 3.04 ERA) at Dodgers (Landon Knack, 3-4, 3.39 ERA), 7:10 p.m., SportsNet LA, AM 570, 1020 KTNQ
Wednesday: San Diego (Dylan Cease, 14-11, 3.42 ERA) at Dodgers (Jack Flaherty, 13-7, 3.10 ERA), 7:10 p.m., SportsNet LA, AM 570, 1020 KTNQ
Thursday: San Diego (Joe Musgrove, 6-5, 3.95 ERA) at Dodgers (Walker Buehler, 1-6, 5.63 ERA), 7:10 p.m., SportsNet LA, AM 570, 1020 KTNQ
*-left-handed
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Sandy Koufax pitches in the 1984 Cracker Jack Oldtimers classic. Watch and listen here.